2018 Gubernatorial Predictions (10/3/18)
It is October now, and we are just weeks away from the 2018 General Election. Some of the most important elections happening on November 6th are the nation's 36 gubernatorial elections, as all but 2 of this year's winners will be serving through 2021 and many will have a part in drawing the next congressional lines after the 2020 census. Not to mention that they will have a key role in advancing policy in many states across the country. Needless to say, the stakes are high for both parties. Before I get into my actual ratings, let me explain them first.
Safe = The party favored is all but certain to win barring a major upset.
Likely = The favored party has a considerable advantage but an upset is seen as possible.
Lean = The favored party is only narrowly favored and a win by the other party is possible.
Tilt = A tossup race with the slightest edge for the favored party. Essentially, my view of how tossup races will go.
Tossup = A pure toss-up with no clear favorite.
Now that the ratings have been explained, we'll go into detail in all 36 contests in alphabetical order, starting with Alabama.
Alabama - Kay Ivey* (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D)
Safe Republican
Last year, Alabama Democrats got a rare statewide victory and reason to celebrate when Doug Jones was elected to the US Senate. However, there isn't much reason to believe that momentum will hold this year. According to the Morning Consult, Kay Ivey's approval rating is a very high 67% and polling shows her with a very large lead over Walt Maddox. Barring a major change in the race, I'm rating this Safe Republican.
Alaska - Bill Walker* (I) vs. Mike Dunleavy (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
Lean Republican (PICKUP)
Alaska has one of the most interesting gubernatorial races this year, as it is one of only 2 true 3-way races, and is Republican's best opportunity to pick up a seat in what looks to be a tough year for the party. Bill Walker won in 2014 against an unpopular Republican governor, and it appears that the roles will be reversed this time. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, only 29% of Alaskans approve of Bill Walker and that appears to be helping Mike Dunleavy. He is also being helped by the candidacy of former US Senator Mark Begich, as polls show Mike Dunleavy with a consistent plurality. The latest shows Bill Walker in third, with Dunleavy having a 15% lead over Mark Begich. Unless someone drops out of the race, Dunleavy should take this back for the Republicans. I'm rating this Lean Republican.
Arizona - Doug Ducey* (R) vs. David Garcia (D)
Tilt Republican
Doug Ducey originally was more of a favorite for re-election earlier in the year but numerous developments have made this race much more competitive. According to Morning Consult, just 41% of Arizonans approve of him compared to 43% who disapprove of him, putting him slightly underwater. There is also a hotly contested Senate race where Democrats have had the polling advantage, which could in turn help David Garcia's bid to unseat him. On top of that, David Garcia is a decent candidate, having run for statewide office before. However, there are still numerous data points that favor Ducey too. Ducey does have an incumbency advantage and Garcia still has less name recognition than Ducey. There is also a Green Party candidate on the ballot who could take away critical votes for Garcia. And on top of that, public polling has shown a consistent lead for Ducey. While many things can still change in this race and tilt it the other way, I'm rating this as Tilt Republican.
Arkansas - Asa Hutchinson* (R) vs. Jared Henderson (D)
Safe Republican
Ever since the 2000s, the state Bill Clinton once governed has moved further and further right, and it is now dominated by Republicans. This year is unlikely to change that fact. Asa Hutchinson is a popular incumbent, receiving a 57% approval rating according to Morning Consult and polling has her far ahead of Jared Henderson. Unless something major changes in this race, it is Safe Republican.
California - Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R)
Safe Democratic
Ever since Clinton won the state in 1992, California has become more and more liberal and has moved away from the Republicans, and Republicans haven't won a statewide race since 2006. Considering this year's environment and the candidates, that is unlikely to change. Gavin Newsom is a bit more left wing than Jerry Brown, but that is unlikely to hurt him in such a blue state. Republicans were lucky to get on the ballot this year, but their candidate, John Cox, is not a very strong one. Besides the fact that he has ran in many other states and can be attacked as a carpetbagger, he has also tied himself closely to President Trump, who is very unpopular in the state and will likely hurt him more than help. On top of that, polling has shown a consistent lead for Gavin Newsom and the national environment is in his favor. I rate this as Safe Democratic.
Colorado - Jared Polis (D) vs. Walker Stapleton (R)
Lean Democratic
Colorado is often a close swing state, but it has swung to the left slightly in the last few years, voting more Democratic than the nation has a whole in the last 2 Presidential Elections. Jared Polis is helped by the popularity of incumbent governor John Hickenlooper and the state's leftward swing in recent years. Polling has shown Polis with a consistent but narrow advantage. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Connecticut - Ned Lamont (D) vs. Bob Stefanowski (R)
Lean Democratic
Connecticut, like most of New England, is more willing to vote for Republicans on the local level than in national elections. This is what gives Republicans slight hope of a pickup here. However, Ned Lamont has done a decent job of distancing himself form the very unpopular incumbent governor and has ran a very good campaign. With the national environment in his favor, and the popular Chris Murphy sharing the ballot with him, Ned Lamont has a considerable advantage so far. Polling so far agrees with this assessment. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Florida - Ron DeSantis (R) vs. Andrew Gillum (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Florida is a very important and interesting state, and that's no different this year. With Rick Scott running for the Senate, the gubernatorial seat is wide open. Andrew Gillum pulled off a huge upset and his candidacy has set up the ultimate base election and could have interesting 2020 implications. Andrew Gillum is a part of the progressive Bernie-wing while Ron DeSantis is a part of the Trump-wing. Despite Florida's slight GOP lean, it appears that Gillum is winning the moderates and independents so far and is running surprisingly strong. Polling so far has shown Gillum with a consistent lead over DeSantis, and it appears his candidacy is also helping Bill Nelson in his tight senate race with Rick Scott. Florida is a very divided state and anything could change, but Gillum has the narrow advantage. I'm rating this as Tilt Democrat, giving Democrats their first pickup so far.
Georgia - Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D)
Tilt Republican
Georgia is an odd state that has been solid red since 2000, but it's been getting more in reach for Democrats (Trump only won it by 5% in 2016) and becoming more like North Carolina. This, combined with a strong candidate and a weak opponent, Democrats have been able to put this seat in play. Polling has shown a dead heat, with some showing a narrow lead for Abrams. I would rate this as a pure tossup if Georgia held elections like most states do, but it doesn't. If no one gets at least 50% of the vote, then the race heads to a December runoff. While Abrams has a very good chance of getting more votes than Kemp on Election Day, it's a bit tougher to see her getting an outright majority. And Democrats have consistently under-performed in Georgia runoffs. The best example is the 2008 Senate race. Saxby Chambliss* (R) got 49.8% to Jim Martin's (D) 46.8% on Election Day 2008, a 3 point difference. However, in the December runoff, Chambliss defeated Martin by 14.8 percentage points. While it's certainly possible that Abrams gets 50% on Election Day, I think it is a bit less likely. Because of this, I rate this as Tilt Republican.
Hawaii - David Ige* (D) vs. Andria Tupola (R)
Safe Democratic
If this weren't Hawaii, we might have an actual race here. David Ige has a 46% disapproval rating and just a 39% approval rating, and faced a tough primary challenge earlier this year, winning 51-44 against Colleen Hanabusa. And Andria Tupola isn't a terrible candidate either. However, Hawaii is one of the nation's bluest states and despite his unpopularity, David Ige has a very comfortable lead in the polls of the race so far. Unless we see a change in polling numbers, David Ige should be fine. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Idaho - Brad Little (R) vs. Paulette Jordan (D)
Likely Republican
Idaho is the opposite of Hawaii, and is one of the nation's reddest states. That hasn't stopped Democrats from running a strong challenger in Paulette Jordan. Her combination of Progressive and Conservative policy and focus on local issues have made her campaign much stronger than you would expect. However, it's still going to be very difficult to defeat Brad Little. Polling shows Little with a consistent lead so far. However, Jordan still has good news in those polls. For one, the lead isn't huge. The last non-partisan poll has Little 12 points ahead, which is small considering the state. On top of that, there are many undecided voters. Despite all of this, Little still is a strong favorite to win. However, we'll still be keeping our eyes on his one to see if it moves any. I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Illinois - Bruce Rauner* (R) vs. JB Pritzker (D)
Likely Democratic (PICKUP)
Illinois is usually a solid blue state, but it has been willing to vote red if the Democrat is unpopular and the national environment is red. That's how Mark Kirk won former President Obama's Senate seat in 2010 and how Bruce Rauner won the state's governorship in 2014. But both of those factors have vanished. In 2016, Mark Kirk was crushed by then-Rep. Tammy Duckworth as the state reverted to it's typical partisan lean. Common sense tells you that will happen this year. But that's not even close to the whole story here. Besides a blue national environment and Rauner's unpopularity, he's had trouble with his own base. He barely survived a primary challenge from Jeanne Ives, who ran as a true conservative. On top of that, 2 Independent candidates, Kash Jackson (L) and Sam McCann (C) are running as conservative alternatives and have a combined 10% in polling so far, taking away key votes from Rauner if he wants to win a second term. He also has the money disadvantage and has consistently been behind in polling. At this point, Rauner will need a miracle to hang on. I'm rating this as Likely Democratic.
Iowa - Kim Reynolds* (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Iowa is one of the most well known battleground states in the country, namely because of it's place as the first caucus in Presidential nominating contests. The state often has huge swings and 2016 was no exception, with the state giving President Trump a 9 point victory after voting for former President Obama twice. However, there is plenty of evidence that Iowa Democrats are making significant gains. They are all but certain to hold 2/4 districts, and are competitive in yet another. Iowans are split on Governor Reynolds, with 40% approving of her job and 39% disapproving. Fred Hubbell is running a tough race against her and polling so far shows him with a narrow but consistent lead over Governor Reynolds. While the race is very close and there is a very good chance that Reynolds holds on, the national environment and polling give Hubbell the slight edge here. I'm rating this race as Tilt Democratic.
Kansas - Kris Kobach (R) vs. Laura Kelly (D) vs. Greg Orman (I)
Tossup
Kansas is a solid red state in federal contests but can be competitive in local races depending on the circumstances. This year is a great example. The controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach narrowly edged out incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer by 0.1% and has made this race incredibly competitive, not only because of his own statements but because of the clear lack of party unity. This as given Laura Kelly a huge opening to pickup a governorship in a solid red state. The wildcard in the race is independent Greg Orman, who ran against Senator Pat Roberts in 2014 and has serious name recognition. Polling has the race as dead heat, with Kobach and Kelly essentially tied, with all of the last 4 polls being within the Margin of Error and showing narrow edges for Kelly and Kobach in 2 polls each. Neither candidate has an advantage here. I'm rating this as a pure tossup.
Maine - Shawn Moody (R) vs. Janet Mills (D)
Tossup
A famous saying: "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" hasn't held much truth in recent elections. The state narrowly favored Clinton over Trump in 2016, for example. And while the Senate race almost certainly won't determine the Senate outcome, and ME-2 almost certainly won't determine the House outcome, it could determine NGA majority. Shawn Moody has done a decent job of distancing himself from Governor Paul Lepage and as kept the race very tight despite the national environment and Maine's Democratic tilt in presidential elections. The only poll of the race has it tied. Without further polling, it is impossible to give an advantage to either candidate. I'm rating this as a pure tossup.
Maryland - Larry Hogan* (R) vs. Ben Jealous (D)
Likely Republican
Maryland, like much of New England, is willing to vote red locally despite being deep blue in federal contests. Larry Hogan showed this by narrowly winning the Gubernatorial seat in 2014. According to the latest approval poll by Morning Consult, 68% of those in Maryland approve of Larry Hogan. A poll from just a couple of days ago gave Hogan a 15 point lead over challenger Ben Jealous. Unless something major changes, Hogan should win with ease. I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Massachusetts - Charlie Baker* (R) vs. Jay Gonzalez (D)
Safe Republican
It shouldn't take much explaining to tell you why the nation's most popular governor is expected to get a second term. No prominent Democrats ran and Baker has a huge polling lead over Gonzalez. I rate this as Safe Republican.
Michigan - Bill Schuette (R) vs. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Lean Democratic (PICKUP)
Michigan was home to some of the nation's biggest upsets in 2016, the biggest being Trump's narrow win over Clinton there. However, the national environment appears to be helping Michigan Democrats in their quest to take back the Governorship. Both parties got decent nominees in their primaries and the Republicans haven't made many major mistakes. However, Whitmer has held a consistent lead over Schuette and it has been outside the Margin of Error numerous times. Senator Stabenow's presence on the ballot also appears to be helping Whitmer. Unless the polling is off by a lot, like it was in 2016, and the error favors Republicans, Whitmer should win. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Minnesota - Tim Walz (D) vs. Jeff Johnson (R)
Lean Democratic
At this moment, it appears Republicans threw away a good pickup opportunity by denying former Governor Tim Pawlenty the nomination, instead nominating the more conservative Jeff Johnson. Democrats, on the other hand, nominated a strong candidate in Tim Walz, who is a moderate with experience in winning tough races in red areas. Polling shows Walz with a consistent lead outside of the Margin of Error. At this point, Walz would need to make a considerable mistake in order to lose and Democrats should hold this seat. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Nebraska - Pete Ricketts* (R) vs. Bob Krist
Safe Republican
We don't have much information to go off of in this race, but what we have gives us reason to believe Governor Ricketts should win without a problem. According to Morning Consult, he has a 50-34 approval rating. He also has an incumbency advantage. Unless there is a shockingly close race masked by a complete lack of polling, Ricketts should be fine. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
Nevada - Adam Laxalt (R) vs. Steve Sisolak (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Nevada is another key swing state. Polling shows Adam Laxalt and Steve Sisolak trading the lead. However, due to the national environment, and previous trends in the state, Sisolak has the narrow edge. While the race is still very tight, I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
New Hampshire - Chris Sununu* (R) vs. Molly Kelly (D)
Safe Republican
New Hampshire is another well known swing state, having the nation's first presidential primary and often being incredibly tight. 2016 was no exception, as every statewide race was tight. Clinton won by 0.3%, Hassan won by 0.1% and Governor Sununu won by 3.3%. Despite the closeness of the race just 2 years ago, Sununu has a 61-22 Approval rating and has a consistently huge lead over Molly Kelly. Unless something major happens, Sununu should win with ease. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
New Mexico - Steve Pearce (R) vs. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
Lean Democratic (PICKUP)
New Mexico is often close but rarely considered in play in presidential elections. However, the success of Susana Martinez in 2010 and 2014 was a bit of a surprise. That stands to be corrected this year as the seat is now open and Democratic House Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham has a consistent lead over Republican House Rep. Steve Pearce, often outside of the Margin of Error. It is difficult to see how Republicans keep this seat red. I'm rating this race as Lean Democratic.
New York - Andrew Cuomo* (D) vs. Marcus Molinaro (R)
Safe Democratic
New York is another state that is solidly Democratic. Governor Cuomo has a modest 48-39 and faced a primary challenge from leftist Cynthia Nixon. Polling so far shows Cuomo solidly ahead. The big question is if Nixon will run on the Working Families line or if she will be removed. Even then, it's unlikely that the race becomes competitive. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Ohio - Mike DeWine (R) vs. Richard Cordray (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Ohio is, or as been, one of the nation's most important swing states. There are signs showing that could be changing, but we are unlikely to find out this year. John Kasich leaves office with a decent approval but he's much different than the nominee, Mike DeWine. Both candidates are good ones here, having both held statewide office before and having decent name recognition. Combined with decent party unity, other factors will play the key role here. Most of these seem to help Cordray however. First off, Sherrod Brown will also be on the ballot and will likely help Cordray. Secondly, the national environment appears to be lifting up Cordray. Polling shows a dead heat and traded leads, with the last non-partisan poll having it has an effective tie. While the race is still very much a tossup, I'm narrowly favoring Cordray here. I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
Oklahoma - Kevin Stitt (R) vs. Drew Edmondson (D)
Tilt Republican
Oklahoma is a state that shouldn't ever be in reach for Democrats, but it is thanks to the extreme unpopularity of Governor Mary Fallin. It also helps that Democrats got a good recruit in former Attorney General Drew Edmonson while Republicans didn't get their preferred choice. That means that this race will be very close, as shown in polling so far. The early polls gave Edmondson a narrow edge with the last few giving Stitt the narrow edge. Based on the latest polls and the state's typical voting pattern, I'm giving Stitt the narrow edge here. Though this is one that could very easily change. I'm rating this as Tilt Republican.
Oregon - Kate Brown* (D) vs. Knute Buehler (R)
Lean Democratic
Oregon is, like New England, a state more willing to vote GOP in local elections. Oregon voters are split on Governor Brown, giving her 44-41 approval rating. She also has gotten a decent challenger. However, she recently won in what was a tougher environment and polling has given her consistent edge. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf* (D) vs. Scott Wagner (R)
Lean Democratic
The Keystone state lived up to it's named by being an essential key in both Trump's victory over Clinton and Republican control of the Senate. However, this year, it appear they will be going back to their Democratic roots as Governor Tom Wolf has a modest 45-38 approval rating and has had a consistent and substantial lead over Scott Wagner in all polling. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Rhode Island - Gina Raimondo* (D) vs. Allan Fung (R)
Lean Democratic
Governor Raimondo is lucky that the environment nationally is so blue, otherwise she'd be in serious danger. She is narrowly underwater 44-46 with Rhode Island voters and faces a rematch with Allan Fung, who lost by 4.5% in 2014. Polling so far has given Raimondo a narrow lead. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
South Carolina - Henry McMaster* (R) vs. James Smith (D)
Likely Republican
I'll be honest, I didn't expect that I would put this into any column other than safe at first. But polling has been almost non-existent, and there isn't a single non-partisan poll so far. However, even the Republican poll has the race just barely in the double digits. I'm unsure as to why this is a race considering the 48-28 approval rating for Governor McMaster and the state's partisan lean, but until we see more polling, I rate this as Likely Republican.
South Dakota - Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D)
Lean Republican
Another race that you wouldn't expect to be competitive on paper, but Billie Sutton has run a very good campaign. The only polling is from his camp and has shown him closing in, with the latest poll giving him a narrow lead. However, this is still a poll for the Democrat and we lack non-partisan polling. Until we see nonpartisan polling, I'm rating this as Lean Republican.
Tennessee - Bill Lee (R) vs. Karl Dean (D)
Likely Republican
Tennessee is an odd state. Despite it's solid red appearance, it likes it's moderates. This is what has put Phil Bredesen in play in the US Senate race and it is what puts Karl Dean into play too. However, recent polling gives Bill Lee a substantial edge. Unless we see a shift in polling, I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Texas - Greg Abbott* (R) vs. Lupe Valdez (D)
Safe Republican
Just about everyone who keeps a close eye on politics knows of Beto O' Rourke's campaign against Cruz, with his candidacy putting that race into the competitive column. However, that hasn't translated over to the Governor race. Governor Abbott has a 56-26 approval rating and his challenger lacks the same funding and name recognition that Beto has gotten. Polling shows Abbott with a substantial lead. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
Vermont - Phil Scott* (R) vs. Christine Hallquist (D)
Likely Republican
Vermont is just about the only state that would elect someone like Bernie Sanders and also elect a moderate Republican governor on the exact same ballot. But that is almost certainly going to be what happens this year. Governor Phil Scott enjoyed one of the highest approvals in the country until he signed a gun control law. Since then, it dropped to a much more standard 47-42 approval. However, that support mainly tanked because of Republicans and Independents, while Democrats still give him high approval. That makes it hard to see any of this hurting him very much. There is a complete lack of polling here, making it hard to gauge if it really is hurting him and helping Hallquist. At this point, I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Wisconsin - Scott Walker* (R) vs. Tony Evers (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Scott Walker has had a target on his back ever since he was first elected in 2010, with Republican waves and low Democratic turnout helping to keep him in office. However, his luck may have ran out this year. He is underwater with a 42-50 disapproval, not helped by his brief presidential ambitions during 2016 and his controversial moves over the years. He faces a strong challenge from Tony Evers, who has held statewide office and is considered likeable by most so far. Boosted by what appears to be higher Democratic turnout nationwide, polling has mostly shown Evers ahead. Now, of course, this can all still change. Scott Walker has a good GOTV machine that helped Senator Johnson and President Trump win in 2016, but at this point, we rate this as Tilt Democratic.
Wyoming - Mark Gordon (R) vs. Mary Throne (D)
Safe Republican
We end with an easy one. While we lack polling here, and this an open race, Wyoming is very red and it's hard to see how Mary Throne could have a lead. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
Summary:
Democrats are in a very good position to make massive gains at this point. None of their seats are in the Tossup/Lean Republican/Likely Republican column (Unless you count Independent Governor Bill Walker) , while 3 Republican seats are in the Likely/Lean Democratic column. There are 10 total tossup races, 5 Tilting Blue, 3 Tilting red, and 2 that are pure tossups. Assuming everything stays as is, Democrats gain 8 GOP seats (NM, IL, MI, NV, WI, IA, OH, FL) and Republicans gain 1 Independent seat in Alaska. If the pure tossups went 50-50, then the NGA would be tied. If one party were to win both, they would have the majority. Either way, the point is that Democrats are likely to make huge gains here, and set Democrats in a much better position going into 2021 redistricting. You can view the map here: http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/ROOM
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