2018 Senate Predictions (10/4/2018)
Updated: Oct 11, 2018
As we get into 2018's final stretch, the Senate is without a doubt the most fascinating story. At the start of the cycle, it seemed impossible for Democrats to take control of the upper chamber. However, a slim path has been created thanks to Doug Jones' upset in Alabama late last year and the candidacy of Phil Bredesen in Tennessee. Now, that doesn't mean that's the most likely scenario, Democrats still need to run the table and sweep almost all of the tossups, and many of these races are still in contention. Republicans are still the favorites here, keep that in mind. But with the high stakes in this year's senate races and the possibility of an upset, they are still worth your attention on Election Night.
Before we get into our ratings, let's explain what they all mean.
Safe = The party favored is all but certain to win barring a major upset.
Likely = The favored party has a considerable advantage but an upset is seen as possible.
Lean = The favored party is only narrowly favored and a win by the other party is possible.
Tilt = A tossup race with the slightest edge for the favored party. Essentially, my view of how tossup races will go.
Tossup = A pure toss-up with no clear favorite.
Now, let's get into the race rating for each of the 35 Senate contests this year in alphabetical order, starting in Arizona.
Arizona - Martha McSally (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Arizona has been solidly Republican for a while now, and they haven't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. However, that could change this year. Senator Jeff Flake decided to retire after realizing that he was doomed to lose the Republican primary, and that has opened the seat up. Both parties have nominated strong candidates. Democrats nominated Kyrsten Sinema, a conservative Democrat who has represented AZ-9 in the House of Representatives since winning a tough race in 2012. Republicans nominated Martha McSally, an establishment Republican who has represented AZ-2 in the House since narrowly winning the seat in 2014. Both candidates are about even in fundraising, and the race is very tight. What tilts it blue is the fact that Sinema didn't have to deal with a serious primary while McSally had to fend off two very conservative candidates in order to make it this far. And polling has given Sinema a consistent, but narrow lead over McSally. I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
California - Dianne Feinstein* (D) vs. Kevin de Leon (D)
Likely Feinstein
This seat is guaranteed to stay in Democratic hands, as no Republican will be on the ballot. So the bigger question is which Democrat will it be. Incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein is running for a 5th term and is receiving a challenge from the left by State Senate President pro tempore Kevin de Leon. Senator Feinstein has the advantage thanks to high name recognition, a huge money advantage, and the power of incumbency. She has had a solid lead in most polling so far. I'm rating this Likely Feinstein.
Connecticut - Chris Murphy* (D) vs. Matthew Corey (R)
Safe Democratic
After Joe Lieberman retired in 2012, both parties made efforts to take his seat. Linda McMahon spent millions of dollars but lost to Chris Murphy. 6 years later, Republicans aren't really competing here again. Senator Chris Murphy enjoys a solid 49-35 approval rating and polling so far has him far ahead of his challenger. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Delaware - Tom Carper* (D) vs. Rob Arlet (R)
Safe Democratic
After beating back a primary challenge, Tom Carper is a solid favorite to keep his seat.
Voters in the state give him 51-27 approval rating and polling show him with a huge lead over his Republican challenger. I'm rating this Solid Democratic.
Florida - Bill Nelson* (D) vs. Rick Scott (R)
Tilt Democratic
Bill Nelson hasn't had a tough race in a while, and has maintained a low profile. This has helped Governor Rick Scott give him a very tough race despite the state only going to Trump by a couple of points in 2016. Senator Nelson has a decent 44-34 approval rating, but Scott has a better 54-35 approval rating. Scott also has a money advantage and this race will be tight till the very end. Public polling was going Scott's way for a while, but the most recent polling seems to give Nelson the edge. At this point, the race tilts blue, though that could change. I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
Hawaii - Mazie Hirono* (D) vs. Ron Curtis (R)
Safe Democratic
Hawaii is one the nation's bluest states, and Incumbent Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono has a solid 56-27 approval rating. No polling has been done in this race, but it's very hard to see how Republicans could take this one. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Indiana - Joe Donnelly* (D) vs. Mike Braun (R)
Tilt Democratic
At the start of the cycle, Joe Donnelly seemed like he'd be the most vulnerable Senator up for election this year along with Joe Manchin, but both haven't fell into those spots yet. The Air Waves have already been flooded in my home state by attack ads from both camps. Donnelly has a slight money advantage so far, along with having more name recognition. He has a surprisingly decent 41-34 approval rating, and polling has shown him with a slight edge. Now, the Kavanaugh debacle could have a major factor here. Donnelly has said he will vote no if there is no investigation, but Republicans have already ran with it saying he is definitive "No", believing it will hurt him. We haven't had a poll of the race since he's announced this, so we have no good way of gauging how much, if it all, this will hurt him. At this point, we are rating the race Tilt Democratic.
Maine - Angus King* (I) vs. Eric Brakey (R) vs. Zak Ringelstein (D)
Safe Independent
Angus King faces challenges from both major parties, though not particularly strong ones. Eric Brakey is a State Senator with a Libertarian bent while Zak Ringelstein is a Teacher and a Democratic Socialist. Senator King has a solid 57-29 approval rating and polling shows King with a huge lead. I'm rating this as Safe Independent.
Maryland - Ben Cardin* (D) vs. Tony Campbell (R)
Safe Democratic
Senator Cardin easily defeated his primary challengers and now looks to be a lock for re-election. Cardin has a solid 47-26 approval rating and the only polls of the race show him with a huge lead. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren* (D) vs. Geoff Diehl (R)
Safe Democratic
In 2010, Republicans were able to take this seat in an upset Special Election victory. 2 years later, Senator Scott Brown faced a tough challenge from Warren and was narrowly defeated by 7.5%. 6 years later, Warren is favored to win a much bigger re-election. Senator Warren has a solid 53-36 approval rating and has a huge lead in polling. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Michigan - Debbie Stabenow* (D) vs. John James (R)
Likely Democratic
On paper, you'd think this should be at least a bit more competitive. After all, Trump narrowly carried the state in just 2 years ago. But Stabenow has a history of over-performing. Former President Barack Obama carried the state by 9.5% in 2012, while Stabenow won re-election by 21%, doing much better than Obama. It appears likely that she will do it again this year. Her approval rating is a mediocre 40-38, but everything else is in her favor. Besides being the incumbent with better name recognition, she has a huge fundraising advantage and Republicans really aren't competing here. She consistently leads John James by a lot. Unless polling is completely off once again, Stabenow should win with ease. I'm rating this as Likely Democratic.
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar* (D) vs. Jim Newberger (R)
Safe Democratic
Speaking of Senators who have a history of over-performing, Senator Klobuchar is extremely popular, having a 60-24 approval rating, making her the nation's 3rd most popular Senator. Republicans haven't bothered trying to contest her seat, focusing more attention on the House seats and the other Senate race. Polls have also shown Klobuchar with a massive lead. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Minnesota Special - Tina Smith* (D) vs. Karin Housley (R)
Lean Democratic
Minnesota has another Senate election to fill Al Franken's unexpired term. Voters don't know his replacement well, with 41% of voters having no opinion of Tina Smith, who was appointed by Governor Dayton. Those who do know her seem to like her though, giving her a net 16 point approval rating. Karin Housley has run a decent campaign so far, but national Republicans aren't helping her much, instead focusing on tighter races. Polling shows Smith with a consistent and significant lead so far. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
Mississippi - Roger Wicker* (R) vs. David Baria (D)
Safe Republican
Yet another state having 2 different Senate elections. Just like in Minnesota however, the focus is on the Special Election. Roger Wicker enjoys a 47-27 approval rating and a huge monetary advantage. We don't have much polling here, but the polls we do have show Wicker with a substantial lead. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
Mississippi - Cindy Hyde-Smith* (R) vs. Mike Espy (D) vs. Chris McDaniel (R)
Likely Republican
This election is being held to fill the seat of retiring Senator Thad Cochran, and the way it's being held is the reason it's even slightly competitive. Each candidate will be placed on the ballot without their Party ID, and if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then it will head to a runoff a few weeks later. Cindy Hyde-Smith is the incumbent here being challenged by Democrat Mike Espy, who was a Clinton admin official and congressman and is running as a moderate. She also has to face Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party conservative who challenged Cochran in 2014. Due to the 3-way race, there will almost certainly be a runoff. Polling shows Mike Espy and Cindy Hyde-Smith both making it to the runoff, where Hyde-Smith would have a considerable lead according to available numbers. However, if McDaniel were able to somehow make it to the runoff, polling for that shows a narrow Espy lead and the seat would be even more competitive. Considering the numbers we have though, the most likely scenario is that Espy and Hyde-Smith go to the runoff and Hyde-Smith wins it. I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Missouri - Claire McCaskill* (D) vs. Josh Hawley (R)
Tossup
McCaskill is a very good politician and knows how to survive in a red state better than many of her colleagues, which is how she got re-elected in 2012. This year, she is facing a tougher challenge in Attorney General Josh Hawley. McCaskill is underwater, having a 40-44 approval rating. Combined with the state's partisan tilt, she should be losing. But Hawley and Missouri Republicans have kept her in the game so far. Hawley promised in 2016 that he wouldn't seek higher office until his term expired, which is now clearly a broken promise. He's also not raised much money and hasn't ran the greatest campaign. McCaskill, meanwhile, has been fighting very hard for her third term in the US Senate. Polling has shown them both trading the lead frequently, with the latest non-partisan poll having the race tied. Now, Kavanaugh remains a wild card here. If she votes against him, that could tilt this seat red. But, until we know what will happen with Kavanaugh, I'm rating this as a pure tossup.
Montana - Jon Tester* (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R)
Tilt Democratic
Tester is another smart politician, but has the added benefit of a state more open to Democrats. Even as Trump carried the state by 20 percentage points, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election by 3.8 percentage points on the same day. He also faced a tougher race than McCaskill in 2012, has his opponent had no major scandals that year. On top of that, he boasts a solid 50-36 approval rating according to the Morning Consult and has a huge financial advantage, in part because national Republicans think money can be better spent elsewhere. He also received good news when the courts kicked the Green Party off the ballot. Despite all of that, Rosendale has been gaining lately, closing Tester's polling lead. On top of that, Tester has confirmed he won't be voting for Kavanaugh recently, and we don't know what kind of effect that will have on his race. I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
Nebraska - Deb Fischer* (R) vs. Jane Raybould (D)
Likely Republican
Deb Fischer's 2012 victory was a bright spot for Republicans in a bad year when it came to the Senate, being their only net gain from the Democrats that cycle. If Democrats were to thread the needle and win the chamber this year, this will likely stay a bright spot. Senator Fischer has a modest 44-36 approval rating and sits in a pretty red state. What makes the race Likely rather than safe is a few things. For one, Trump's tariffs could have a particularly negative effect in this state and that could hurt Fischer. Secondly, her approval rating is not that high and she is facing a strong challenger from moderate Democrat Jane Raybould. And lastly, we don't have any non-partisan polling here, and any polling at all from the last few months. Fischer should still win, but do keep an eye on this one. I'm rating this as Likely Republican.
Nevada - Dean Heller* (R) vs. Jacky Rosen (D)
Tilt Democratic (PICKUP)
Dean Heller has the privilege of being the only Republican Senator up for re-election in a state carried by Clinton in 2016. That also means he is extremely vulnerable. He hasn't done himself many favors either. With the help of President Trump, he didn't have to face a real primary challenge this year, but it was at the cost of giving Representative Rosen a great line of attack. Heller initially said he would vote against the ACA repeal bill, before voting for it. Ever since Tarkanian dropped his bid, Senator Heller has moved to the right to try and please the Trump base. However, this could hurt more than help in a state he lost 2 years ago. His approval rating shows this, he's underwater 37-40. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated a strong challenger in Jacky Rosen, who has represented NV-3 for the last 2 years and knows how to win tough races. She has attacked Heller for his flip on the ACA repeal and his support for Kavanaugh, among other things. Heller has struck back, stating that she has little to show for her 2 years in the House and has attempted to tie her to Pelosi and Schumer. Both candidates are pretty much even in fundraising and both parties consider this a critical race. Polling so far has given Rosen the narrow edge, but that could change at any moment. Regardless, Democrats need this seat in order to have any chance of taking the Senate. I'm rating this as Tilt Democratic.
New Jersey - Bob Menendez* (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R)
Lean Democratic
Under normal circumstances, this race wouldn't be in play. The state hasn't voting for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988 and hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, but Menendez has hurt Democratic chances of keeping this seat blue. Menendez faced a corruption trial that ended as a mistrial, thanks to hung jury. However, New Jersey voters still have a bad taste in their mouth. The Senator is underwater, 33-41, and faces a tough challenge from moderate Republican Bob Hugin, who has poured millions of his money into the race. If this were any other year, Menendez would probably lose, but the national environment is helping him maintain a lead. The last non-partisan poll has him up by 6 points, and Hugin hasn't led in a single one yet. I'm rating this as Lean Democratic.
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich* (D) vs. Mick Rich (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L)
Likely Democratic
This race got a bit more interesting when former Governor and Presidential candidate Gary Johnson announced he was going to run for this seat. However, it doesn't appear to be having a huge impact. The polling has Martin Heinrich still considerably ahead of both Mick Rich and Gary Johnson. It helps that he has a solid 43-32 approval rating and is the incumbent. Unless Mick Rich drops his bid, Heinrich should win. I'm rating this Likely Democratic.
New York - Kirsten Gillibrand* (D) vs. Chele Farley (R)
Safe Democratic
Kirsten Gillibrand hasn't attracted a strong challenger and has a history of performing very well. She has a 47-28 approval rating and polling has her far ahead of her challenger. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp* (D) vs. Kevin Cramer (R)
Tilt Republican (PICKUP)
Heitkamp is without a doubt the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. Besides a money advantage and a moderate voting record, she doesn't have much going for her here. Her approval rating is tied 44-44 among North Dakota voters and she faces a very good opponent in Representative Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state already in the House of Representatives. He has consistently held a narrow lead in polling and it's looking like it's gonna be tough for her to hold on. There are 2 things that could change things. For one, voting for Kavanaugh could give her the slight boost she needs in order to hold on to her seat. Secondly, Trump's tariffs could have a big impact. The polls could also be off, as they were in 2012. On the other side of the coin, Cramer has distanced himself from Trump on tariffs and if Senator Heitkamp voted against Kavanaugh, she would almost certainly lose her seat. At this point, this race Tilts Republican.
Ohio - Sherrod Brown* (D) vs. Jim Renacci (R)
Likely Democratic
Senator Brown caught a huge break when Josh Mandel, his 2012 opponent, withdrew from the 2018 race. Trump over-preformed in 2016 in Ohio, winning by around 500,000 votes thanks to numerous working class voters who shifted red. However, Brown is the exact kind of Democrat that those voters like, shown by his approval rating (44-29), and his significant lead in the polls. It also helps that Renacci isn't the ideal candidate for Republicans. I'm rating this as Likely Democratic.
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey Jr.* (D) vs. Lou Barletta (R)
Likely Democratic
Much like Ohio, Casey is the exact kind of Democrat that appeals to the working class voters who switched to Trump in 2016, and he also doesn't have a strong opponent. He has a modest 42-32 approval rating and has a huge lead over Barletta in polling. I'm rating this as Likely Democratic.
Rhode Island - Sheldon Whitehouse* (D) vs. Robert Flanders (R)
Safe Democratic
Ever since unseating Republican Lincoln Chafee in 2006, Senator Whitehouse has enjoyed wide support. He has a very high 51-30 approval rating and has had huge leads in the few polls done here. National Republicans aren't bothering to contest this one, instead focusing on the gubernatorial race. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Tennessee - Marsha Blackburn (R) vs. Phil Bredesen (D)
Tossup
This race, along with Missouri, will determine Senate control if all of my other current predictions hold. Senator Bob Corker is retiring and, along with the candidacy of former Governor Bredesen, the seat is now among the most competitive of the year. The state is solid red, but it likes moderates. Marsha Blackburn is no moderate, originally running against Corker in the primary as a Pro-Trump alternative. Unlike Kelli Ward in Arizona, Republicans couldn't prevent her from winning the nomination. Meanwhile, Democrats got their best recruit of the cycle in former Governor Phil Bredesen, who won every county in his 2006 re-election. Fundraising has been mostly equal and polling has shown the lead go back and forth. I'm rating this as Tossup.
Texas - Ted Cruz* (R) vs. Beto O'Rourke
Lean Republican
It's a true surprise that this race is competitive. Ted Cruz has a modest 48-35 approval rating according to Morning Consult, the state is still pretty red, and turnout is often low here. But Beto has raised just as much as Senator Cruz, and as run an amazing campaign. Polling has shown a very tight race between the two. Beto still hasn't led in most polling, and it's possible he's hit his ceiling. At this point, the races Leans Republican, but that could change depending on what polls show over the next few weeks.
Utah - Mitt Romney (R) vs. Jenny Wilson
Safe Republican
Utah is just about the reddest state in the country, and Mitt Romney is the perfect candidate for such a state. His ever changing stance on the President makes you wonder what kind of Senator he will be, but that question will certainly be answered. He easily beat Obama here in 2012 and polling shows that he will do the same to Democrat Jenny Wilson. I'm rating this as Safe Republican.
Vermont - Bernie Sanders* (I) vs. Lawrence Zupan (R)
Safe Sanders
According to Morning Consult, Bernie Sanders is the most popular Senator in the Country, with a 63-32 approval rating and he isn't facing any real strong challengers. We don't have any polling, but I doubt the polling would shock us here. I'm rating this as Safe Sanders.
Virginia - Tim Kaine* (D) vs. Corey Stewart (R)
Safe Democratic
Republicans haven't won a statewide race here since 2009, and it appears that won't be changing this year. Virginia has been getting bluer and bluer thanks to the growth in the Northern parts of the state close to DC. In 2017, Ralph Northam easily won the Governorship and Kaine is even more of a favorite. Besides being Clinton's VP nominee, and boasting a modest 45-35 approval rating, Republicans nominated a very weak candidate in Corey Stewart and National Republicans have all but given up here. Kaine has consistently led by huge margins in polling. I'm rating this as Safe Democratic.
Washington - Maria Cantwell* (D) vs. Susan Hutchison (R)
Safe Democratic
Cantwell hasn't attracted a strong Republican challenger this year, and while we don't have much public polling here, the blanket primary gives me reason to believe she will be fine. Cantwell received 54.7% in the primary, and something drastic will need to change in order for that lead to go away. I'm rating this Safe Democratic.
West Virginia - Joe Manchin* (D) vs. Patrick Morrisey (R)
Tilt Democratic
On paper, Senator Manchin should be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up this year, since Trump won his state by 40+ percentage points. But Manchin is well known here and has won many elections. While views of him have certainly fallen, he sits at just a 45-43 approval rating, his opponent is viewed favorable either. Republican nominated Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who Democrats have hit hard on his part in the lawsuit against pre-existing conditions and for being a carpetbagger. This appears to be working, as Manchin has had a rather consistent lead in polling. However, this is another race where the Kavanaugh vote could be important. Polling shows that West Virginians overwhelmingly support his confirmation to the Supreme Court. If Manchin were to vote against him, that could change the entire race. Meanwhile, if he votes for him, that will likely move this race more in his favor. At this point, the race Tilts Democratic.
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin* (D) vs. Leah Vukmir (R)
Lean Democratic
Two years after Republicans got 2 statewide upsets here, they appear to be the underdogs. Tammy Baldwin has a modest 44-39 approval rating, and all polling has Senator Baldwin with a decent lead so far, while Vukmir hasn't led once. National Republicans have all but conceded this race. I'm rating this Lean Democratic.
Wyoming - John Barrasso* (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D)
Safe Republican
Wyoming is just about the reddest state in the country, and John Barasso has a 52-33 approval rating. It's pretty much impossible for him to lose. I'm rating this Safe Republican.
In Summary, Democrats are in a surprisingly decent position. There are 13 Solid Democratic races (36), 4 Likely (40), and 3 Leaning (43). For the Republicans, 3 are Solid Republican (45), 2 are Likely (47), and 1 is Leaning (48). In total, there are 9 Tossups, 6 Tilting Democratic and 1 Tilting Republican, with 2 that are pure tossups. Even with what look like very good ratings, Democrats still have to win both of the pure Tossups in order to win control, which is very difficult to do. Overall, Democrats are likely to hold their current ground for the most part and have a decent shot at netting one seat, but the majority is still very difficult.
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