2018 US House Predictions (10/4/18)

The race for control of the House of Representatives is what has gotten the most attention, rightfully or wrongly so, because of the chances of a Democratic takeover for the first time since their landslide in 2008. I believe that the Democrats are significant favorites for House Control. Now, since there are over 400 House races, and 110 total races that aren't safe, I won't go over each district here. I'll just go over the overall rating.

Democrats are favored in 220 Districts, 2 more than the 218 needed, while Republicans are favored in 203 races, with 12 Pure Tossups. However, if you've read my other predictions, you know I classify some Tossups as Tilting one way. Considering that, 207 races are given to Democrats while Republicans are given 186, with 42 Total tossups. The big reason Democrats have such a high chance at the majority is how many GOP seats have already fallen into their camp. I have them gaining 12 seats without tilts, meaning that out of the 42 Tossups, Democrats only need 11 of them. This makes the chance of winning control much higher. Republicans actually have more seats tilting their way, the problem is the battlefield is almost entirely on the Republican side. 184 of the Democrat's 195 current seats are Solid, while only 141 of the 240 seats Republicans hold are Safe. I'll go into more depth on some of these ratings at a later date. And, of course, I'll change them when new information comes out. I'm keeping an eye on NYT's IL-14 poll at the moment to see if should change my rating there.

You can view my full map here: http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/AKJRGLK

You can also see a map without Tilts here: http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/Xlgqaop