State Preview: Ohio
Primary Election (April 28th)
Long time no see! It's been a long time since I've posted anything on here, but I wanted to come back and write about the 2020 Elections. And in terms of primaries, Ohio is the next one to watch. It's worth keeping in mind that it actually isn't the next state to vote, that would be Alaska. But with the Democratic Race all but over (Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign, leaving Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee.) I wanted to focus on states where local primaries for US Senate, Governor, and US House are being held. That also means I won't be discussing the Presidential Primary, Biden is the large favorite in each remaining contest and it would be redundant to repeat that in each preview. So, with all of that out of the way, let's begin!
Ohio's 1st Congressional District, Democratic
Incumbent Republican Steve Chabot won re-election in 2018 by less than 5 points and is rated by most as "Lean Republican" meaning that Democrats have a shot at taking the seat this year, which makes this primary worth paying some attention too. The Democrats here are Nikki Foster, a former Air Force pilot, and Kate Schroder, a former member of the Cincinnati Board of Health, who appear to be quite similar when it comes to ideology. Foster has a great biography and greater online following, but Schroder has outraised and outspent Foster. I'd give the advantage to Schroder, but this could be a close primary.
Ohio's 3rd Congressional District, Democratic
Progressives have had mixed results this cycle, as they successfully unseated Dan Lipinski but failed to take down Henry Cuellar, and that doesn't even mention the defeat of Bernie Sanders in the Presidential Primary. It's here, in Ohio 3, where they have their next shot. Morgan Harper, endorsed by Justice Democrats, is taking on Incumbent Democrat Joyce Beatty in a race that has attracted some attention. Harper has racked up numerous endorsements and has a good profile. Beatty, however, has the natural advantages that comes with being a longtime incumbent. High name recognition, establishment support, and a significant fundraising advantage, all of which could be even more powerful with the coronavirus pandemic. She has the advantage, but this one could produce a surprise.
Ohio's 12th Congressional District, Democratic
I was considering not including this one, but seeing that I believe this is a potentially competitive race (Likely Republican) and the result could change it, here we are. Alaina Shearer and Jenny Bell are competing to take on Incumbent Republican Troy Balderson, who narrowly won two close races in 2018. Jenny Bell's campaign doesn't appear to be going anywhere, with less than $4,000 on hand, and Alaina Shearer is a massive favorite. But if Jenny Bell somehow pulled it off, this would be moved to Safe Republican in my ratings, which is why I decided to include the primary in this preview.
General Election (November 3rd)
The general election in Ohio is both fascinating and uninteresting at the same time. The state has shifted red and could, for the first time in decades, vote against the Presidential winner. But it is also a state lacking an important Senate OR Gubernatorial race, and it it likely that Ohio produces a status quo result. Let's take a look.
Presidential Election, Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump*
Initial Rating: Lean Republican
So, we have our candidates. Both have their weaknesses and strengths. If it were 2012, I'd be saying that this is setup to be a competitive race, as both candidates have proven that they have strength in the midwest (Especially important for Biden as the last nominee, Hillary Clinton, had much less than Trump) but Ohio is a state that is moving to the right, and Biden has a significant gap to make up here. This is emphasized by the Republican success here in the 2018 midterms, which largely favored Democrats across the county. His enthusiasm problems also spell trouble when it comes to getting the necessary turnout in the state's urban centers to offset large margins for Trump in the state's rural regions. While Biden has led in some polling, and is positioned to do better than Clinton did thanks to his larger support among non-college whites, he'll need to show that he can get turnout among young voters up. Until then, Ohio leans red.
Ohio House Elections
14 out of Ohio's 16 congressional districts are safe for the incumbent party, and the two that aren't are still leaning towards re-electing their incumbents.
In the 1st district, Incumbent Republican Steve Chabot will face either Nikki Foster or Kate Schroder, and I'm starting this off as "Lean Republican". I believe both Democratic candidates would keep the race at this rating. In 2018, Democrats targeted Chabot heavily and fell short by a few points and aren't focusing as much on it this year. Trump won the seat by 5 points in 2016 and it's difficult for me to see him losing the district this year. That said, Democrats have had some decent fundraising and if Democrats make this a target and Joe Biden manages to win statewide, than Democrats could pull off a surprise here.
In the 12th district, Incumbent Republican Troy Balderson will be running for re-election and will likely face off against Alaina Shearer. I'm starting this off as "Likely Republican". If Jenny Bell somehow wins the Democratic Primary, I'll move this to "Safe Republican". Balderson won twice in a tough year against a much stronger candidate, Donald Trump won the district by 11 points in 2016, and both Democrats have had very weak fundraising. Republicans should hold onto this one.
Unless something significant happens to change the race in Ohio, all 16 seats will re-elect their incumbents.
Ohio is a tough state for Democrats, and while they have a shot at taking the state and flipping a seat, they will likely focus and easier and more realistic contests across the nation, especially since the state lacks a big statewide contest that isn't the Presidential race. Expect Ohio's results to be a bit boring, voting for Trump once again, if by a narrower margin, and re-electing all of it's incumbent house members. Thanks for reading! I hope to post another state preview sometime soon.
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