The Focus may be on 2020, but there's plenty to watch in 2019!
Here's (some) of what to look out for in 2019.
For many Americans, there's only an important election every four years. For a smaller number, it's every 2 years. But there are elections every year, including in 2019. 3 states will hold gubernatorial elections, 4 states will have state legislative elections, and there will be plenty of others! Strap in as I give you a rundown of them all, and predictions for each!
Gubernatorial (KY, MS, LA)
These three states are oddly similar, they are all solidly Republican states at the federal level, but have competitive gubernatorial elections in 2019. Republicans have 25 seats that aren't up for election while Democrats have 22. Democrats will be defending Louisiana, while Republicans are defending Kentucky and Mississippi. Here's what's going on in each of them.
Louisiana
Incumbent: John Bel Edwards (D), running for re-election.
Known Challengers: Ralph Abraham, Eddie Rispone
Initial Rating: Tilt Democratic
(A jungle primary will be held on October 12th will all candidates. If no one gets 50%, a runoff will be held on November 28th)
Ever since Edwards won in 2015, Republicans have been itching to unseat him. After all, his opponent in 2015 made a number of mishaps and Louisiana is a very red state. But Edwards has remained relatively popular and, so far, hasn't drawn a truly serious challenger. With John Kennedy and Jeff Landry deciding against runs, Republicans lack a candidate known well state-wide. Early non-partisan polls have had Edwards with a significant lead over both Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone. There's still time for a better candidate to enter, and for Abrham to gain more name recognition, so Edwards is by no means a lock. But he starts with the advantage.
Mississippi
Incumbent: Phil Bryant (R), term-limited
Important Dates: Primary is August 26th, General is November 5th
Initial Rating: Tilts Republican
Most would be surprised to hear that there's a Democrat elected statewide here, but there is, and he's running for Governor. Jim Hood won his 4th term as Attorney General in 2015 by 10 points, and has remained popular despite the state's GOP lean. However, he first has to defeat 8 other Democrats in the primary. The current Lieutenant Governor, Tate Reeves, is expected to have an easy win in the GOP primary. Early polling has shown Jim Hood with a lead, but an archaic law requires that he also wins a majority of State House districts, a taller order. Jim Hood would likely have to win by at least 4 points, possibly more, to carry enough statehouse seats to win outright. If he doesn't, the State House will almost certainly elect the Republican. For that reason, the Republicans hold the early advantage.
Kentucky
Incumbent: Matt Bevin (R)
Known Challengers: Andy Beshear, Rocky Adkins
Important Dates: Primary is May 21st, General is November 5th
Initial Rating: Tilt Democratic
I live nearby to Kentucky, so this race is one I hear about locally.
Kentucky may be a red state, but Matt Bevin is incredibly unpopular and has been for quite a long time. Democrats also have a top-tier challenger in State Attorney General Andy Beshear, first elected in 2015. Early polling shows Beshear with a significant lead over Bevin. Barring any primary shockers, Beshear holds the advantage.
State Legislatures
4 States will hold State Legislative elections, but the one that deserves the most attention is Virginia. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the State Senate and State House, and Democrats. While the State is becoming more Democratic, the state's top Democratic officials have been dogged by scandal in recent months, though the Republicans are still underdogs. We'll start with the Virginia State Senate.
Virginia State Senate
Current: 21 Republicans, 19 Democrats
Democrats need a net gain of 1, possibly 2 if Justin Fairfax resigns.
As stated above, Democrats need just one seat in order to gain control since the Lieutenant Governor, who is a Democrat, breaks ties. However, he has been dogged by scandal as of late. If he resigned, he'd be replaced by a Republican.
Potentially Competitive Seats
Rep Held:
District 13 (Held by Dick Black, retiring)
2015: R 52.4% - D 47.6%
2016 Pres: D 50.4% - R 43.9%
2017 Gov: D 55.2% - R 43.7%
This is without a doubt Democrat's best pickup opportunity, if they aren't winning here the Republicans are likely keeping control of the Senate.
District 7 (Held by Frank Wagner, retiring)
2015: R 54.2 - D 45.8
2016 Pres: R 47.2% - D 46.6%
2017 Gov: D 53.6% - 45.1%
It can be argued which seat is the second most vulnerable, but this is an open seat that Trump carried by less than a percentage point and Northam carried by nearly 9 points one year later. Assuming Democrats have a strong candidate, they have a very good chance here.
District 10 (Held by Glen Sturtevant)
2015: R 49.8% - D 47.2%
2016 Pres: D 53.2% - R 40.5%
2017 Gov: D 57.7% - R 41%
While Incumbent Glen Sturtevant is running for re-election, he faces a district that voted for Hillary Clinton by double digits and Northam by over 15 points. Democrats should pick this one up.
District 12 (Held by Siobhan Dunnavant )
2015: R 57.7% - D 38%
2016 Pres: D 47.5% - R 45.9%
2017 Gov: D 51.5% - R 47.2%
Now is where things start getting difficult for Democrats. While Clinton and Northam were able to narrowly win the district, the incumbent Republican won his 2015 election by almost 20 points. Democrats will need a very good candidate and plenty of resources to win this one.
District 17 (Held by Bryce Reeves)
2015: R 62.2% - D 38.8%
2016 Pres: R 50.7% - D 44%
2017 Gov: R 49.7% - D 49.1%
If District 12 is difficult, this district (and the next one) is a long shot. Bryce Reeves won in a landslide in 2015, and while it was close in 2017, Northam still lost here. Expect Republicans to keep this one.
District 11 (Held by Amanda Chase)
2015: R 63.7% - D 36.3%
2016 Pres: R 53.6% - D 41.9%
2017 Gov: R 53.8% - D 45%
Just like District 17, District 11 is a longshot. While Northam managed to keep it in single digits in 2017, this is still a Republican leaning district.
The House of Delegates is also considered in play this year, but it's possible they will be using a new map. I haven't been able to find the details of the new one, so I'll hold off on analyzing the lower chamber for another post in the future.
Special Congressional Elections
Even this soon after the election, some seats are open for the first 2019 special elections. While's it's likely that we get more later, we only have 3 congressional seats that are vacant (All previously held by the GOP). The current balance of power is 235-197 in the House.
North Carolina's 9th Congressional District
Last to hold seat: Robert Pittenger (R)
Reason for Special Election: 2018 Election was tainted by Election Fraud
Last Result: R 49.3%- D 48.9%
Initial Rating: Tossup
Easily the most high profile special election, North Carolina's 9th District is expected to be very competitive after a close race in 2018 was tainted. Democrat Dan McCready, a Blue-Dog, drew it to less than half a percentage point and is expected to have the Democratic Primary to himself. Mark Harris, the Republican candidate who narrowly came out on top last year is choosing to step aside citing health concerns, leaving the Republican field wide open. The primary is May 15th, and if no candidate reaches 30% of the vote, a runoff will be held on September 10th. If there is no runoff, than the general will be held on September 10th, otherwise it will be held on November 5th. While we are starting this off as a tossup, it's very possible we move it towards McCready if the Republican Primary is long and drawn out.
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
Last to hold seat: Walter Jones (R)
Reason for Special Election: Incumbent passed away
Last Result: R 67% - D 33%
Initial Rating: Likely Republican
Depending on the primary results, this could move to Safe Republican. Trump carried the district by over 20 points in 2016, and Democrats need both the insane performance levels they got in 2017-2018 Specials and a good candidate in order to pull this one off. Democrats have 6 candidates running, while Republicans have nearly 20 candidates (!). The primary is April 30th, July 9th is the primary runoff (or general if no runoff is needed), and the general will be held on September 10th.
Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District
Last to hold seat: Tom Marino (R)
Reason for Special Election: Incumbent retired.
Last Result: R 66% - D 34%
Initial Rating: Safe Republican
There isn't much to go over when it comes to this district, has it is deep red. The election is on May 21st.
This wraps up Part 1 of my 2019 Election Guide. Next time, I plan to look at Mayoral races along with other interesting statewide elections. Then I'll finish off with a full schedule of the 2019 elections.
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