The Election is Over, though the count continues.
Updated: Apr 11, 2020
A few days ago, Election 2018 finally happened. As I expected, my personal predictions missed a number of things, though some races are still to be decided.
In terms of the overall picture, things went as expected. Democrats have won more than enough seats to take control of the US House, while Republicans appear poised to expand their majority in the US Senate.
US SENATE
As of now, according to the AP, Republicans have 51 seats and the Democrats have 46, with 3 races yet to be declared. Of those, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith is almost certainly going to win the runoff in Mississippi, it's looking tougher and tougher for McSally in Arizona, and we are set to relive one of the most infamous moments in politics as the Florida Senate race heads to a hand recount, though Republican Rick Scott still has the advantage. It looks like the most likely makeup will be 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, with 5 seats changing hands. My personal prediction was off by at least 1 seat, as Braun had an easier than expected win in Indiana. As I predicted, both Heitkamp and McCaskill have lost their seats. Dean Heller lost as I predicted, while I appear to have gotten Mississippi's Special Election and the Arizona race correct. It appears my prediction will be wrong in Florida. Polling got the outcomes right when considering MOE, though the margins were a bit off. Manchin had a much closer race than expected, while Menendez and Blackburn cruised. (We now know which TN poll was the outlier!) Ted Cruz pulled out a squeaker in Texas, while Rosen easily beat Heller. Sherrod Brown and Debbie Stabenow also had tougher than expected races. Democrats are without a doubt disappointed in the loss of Beto and a failure to take control of the Senate, but it's important to remember the map and how brutal it was. Meanwhile, Republicans are without a doubt happy that they were able to gain some ground in the Senate on an otherwise terrible night.
US HOUSE
It's the opposite story in the US House. According to the AP, Democrats have at least 227 seats and the Republicans have 198. 10 races remain outstanding. My individual predictions missed a lot, as I thought it would. However, it does appear that the outcome will fall with the D +35 - D +45 MOE I gave. Democrats have gained 32 seats at this point, and lead in CA-10, NJ-3, NY-22, and UT-4. Republicans lead in CA-39, CA-45, ME-2, GA-7, NY-27, and TX-23. In the 4 districts Democrats lead, there is little reason to believe any of them will change. Meanwhile, 3 Republican leads are in serious peril. Both CA-39 and CA-45 have been getting closer and closer as more Democratic leaning ballots come in and are both likely to flip towards the Democrats. Meanwhile, Maine's Ranked Choice Voting system appears poised to deliver Jared Golden the votes he needs to win, despite trailing in the initial count. The 3 other Republican leads appear safer. If I'm correct, that would leave Democrats with a net gain of 39 seats, one off of my +40 prediction, even if I got the individual seats wrong. Democrats scored 3 upsets, winning SC-1 (I rated Lean R), NY-11 (also Lean R), and OK-5 (I rated Likely R). Republicans came close to getting an upset by nearly holding NJ-2, but fell short. Polling was largely correct here besides the miss of OK-5 and missing a closer than expected race in TX-23, which is still outstanding.
Democrats are without a doubt happy about their new majority and it's expected margin, while Republicans are disappointed. It appear Trump's agenda will be halted.
Governorships
Democrats had a good night here, and my personal prediction was off by 3 states as of now. I thought Adam Laxalt would out-perform Dean Heller just enough to narrowly hang on, but Steve Sisolak was successful in defeating him. Meanwhile, Republicans held onto Iowa and South Dakota. While every network initially called Ron DeSantis the victor of the Florida Gubernatorial contest, the race is now within the margin needed for a recount. Georgia also remains outstanding. Democrats won 3/5 of the races I said were Tossups, but Republicans won one seat I tilted Democratic. Overall, 8 Governorships changed parties. Republicans gained the Independent seat in Alaska, while Democrats flipped Governorships in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maine, Michigan, Kansas, and Nevada. That's a net gain of 7.
In summary, the Democrats had a good night. They gained 7 Gubernatorial seats, at least 32 House seats (likely to be 37-40 in the end), and held their own in the Senate races. Polling was mostly right, as was Nate Silver. It was a Blue Wave, and Trump will have a tough 2 years ahead of him. Now, the 2020 races starts. (And the 2019 races too!)
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