Final Predictions (Senate, House, Gov)
Early voting has already started in many states, and the polls open everywhere in less than 10 days. We will soon find out the winners and losers of President Donald Trump's first midterm. As such, I am posting my final predictions for every race here. Now, I won't go over any particular race in detail, that'll be in my next posts. As for this article, I'll give a basic overview, and I will have 2 different predictions. "Professional" is essentially my expert rating including Tossups. If there's a race that I believe could go either way, it'll be a Tossup. "Personal" speaks for itself, it's my personal prediction. I will most likely be wrong in a few races, but I thought it would be fun to include anyway. Now, before I share my final ratings, let's go over what each one means.
Lean R/D - The party is favored here, but the race is known to be competitive and the other party definitely has a chance to win the seat.
Tilt R/D - The party has the narrowest of advantages here, and it could easily go the other way.
Tossup - The race is incredibly competitive and could go either way.
Keep in mind that "Personal" excludes these ratings. Alright, now that the ratings have been cleared, let's start with the Senate:
Professional:
Republicans remain the favorites in the Senate, though there still is a path for Democrats here, even if very narrow. Late polling shows that Heitkamp's days in the US Senate are likely coming to a close, as Cramer appears to have a huge lead over her. With her seat out of contention, Democrats have to sweep the Tossups, something that very rarely happens. The good news for them is that the last poll from Tennessee continues to show a close race, and Florida has appeared to be inching in their direction. But every other state is a trouble spot. Heller has had a narrow lead in polling as of late, though Democrats are likely still the narrow favorites because of Harry Reid's machine that has allowed Democrats to consistently over-perform polling. However, that machine doesn't exist in the other states they need. Missouri polls have shown a dead heat, some with Hawley narrowly ahead. Arizona polling has gone back and forth between Sinema and McSally, and it is still a very close race. And despite that recent poll, Tennessee remains a question mark. We had a poll recently showing Blackburn far ahead as well. It's difficult to tell which one is the outlier considering the state. We likely won't know which one was off until Election Night. However, the bottom line is that Democrats need to run the table in order to win control.
Personal:
I believe that the national environment will help get the Democrats close, but not close enough. I think there's no net change in seats. Democrats take Nevada and Arizona while Republicans take North Dakota and Missouri. Now, of course, I could be wrong. The GOP could very well win Nevada, Arizona, and Indiana and pick up seats. The Democrats could win Missouri and Tennessee and either lose another seat (Like Indiana or Arizona) or pull off an upset in the Senate. But this is my personal prediction.
Now, for Governorships.
Here's the Professional Rating:
Democrats look well positioned to gain a number of state houses, including in numerous important 2020 states. I have Democrats as favorites in 6 Republican states already, including the important 2020 states of Iowa, Michigan, and Florida. The map is simply bad for the GOP here, and some of this is simply correction. New Mexico, Illinois, and Maine are blue states ditching the GOP after some unpopular governors from the party. It's important to note that there are many tilt races, which are still very competitive. However, it appears Democrats are favorites in most of the states they currently hold and are poised to gain many more. Some of it is because of candidate quality. Oregon is still very much a race because Republicans have a decent candidate and Kate Brown isn't a very well known or well liked governor so far. Minnesota saw Republicans nominate a weak candidate, while Democrats have a strong candidate in Tim Walz. In Florida, Ron DeSantis has been his own worst enemy, helping Andrew Gillum in a tough swing state. Brian Kemp and Kris Kobach have also been their own worst enemies and are causing their races to become very tight despite the DNA of their state. In South Dakota and Oklahoma, Democrats have a dream candidate. And in Oklahoma's case, the Republican has had trouble distancing himself from Governor Mary Falin. Meanwhile, Ned Lamont appears to have successfully distanced himself from the unpopular Dan Malloy. Though most of the New England GOP Governors are in good shape.
Personal:
I think we end up tied, with Democrats picking up 9 states (NM, KS, SD, IA, IL, WI, MI, FL, and ME) and Republicans picking up Bill Walker's Independent seat in Alaska. As I said above, I can be off in either direction. SD, KS, and WI could easily stay red while OH and NV could also go blue. But I think it will be a tie. The most interesting thing about this scenario is that NGA majority will be in contention next year. National Republicans will likely target Governor John Bel Edwards in Louisiana, while National Democrats will almost certainly target Governor Matt Bevin in Kentucky. Depending on the results, it could stay a tie, or have a narrow majority for one party. Campaigns have already started in both states. In Kentucky, State Attorney General Andy Beshear, who has been combative against the administration, has already announced his candidacy. And while there haven't been any announcements yet, many Republicans appear likely to challenge Governor Edwards.
Finally, we have the House of Representatives.
Professional:
Democrats remain strong favorites in the House of Representatives. Winning just 6 out of 28 Tossup races would put them into the majority. If the Tossups were to split 50-50, Dem0crats would win 226 seats. 135 seats in total are in play, more than most outlets report. I believe that's because I'm more willing to label seats "Likely". There are many seats where we lack information, and these could be upsets that we wouldn't have seen coming. Essentially, if a Blue Tsnuami were to come, some of those Likely Republicans could fall. If a Red Wave were to come, some of those Likely Democratic seats could fall. However, both scenarios are highly unlikely. The most likely scenario remains a moderate Democratic wave. In total, 29 Democratic seats are at least somewhat competitive, with 8 being very competitive or worse. On the other hand, 115 Republican seats are at least somewhat competitive, with 77 being very competitive or worse.
Personal:
I believe Democrats will win 43 seats currently held by Republicans, losing 3 of their own, resulting in a net gain of 40 seats. Now, I will certainly be wrong on some races. As such, my personal MOE is D +35 - D +45. This is based mostly on information and, for close races, my gut feeling.
We will see how true my predictions end up being in less than 10 days. As it stand, Democrats appear likely to make significant gains across the country and likely take back control of the House of Representatives. Afterwards, the 2020 race begins almost immediately.
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