House Spotlight: IN-2 and IN-9
In 2006, Indiana (my home state) was a key part in giving Democrats control of the House of Representatives. Democrats took 3 Republican seats here. Over a decade later, getting any of Indiana's seats would mean a massive wipe-out and these would just be icing on the cake. Indeed, following the 2011 redistricting, it has become next to impossible to flip any of the state's districts. Indiana's 1st District includes the Solid Democratic Lake County and a few other small swing counties. Indiana's 7th District comprises most of Indianapolis. The other districts are drawn to give Republicans the advantage, and most aren't noteworthy. Mike Pence's brother is almost certainly going to Congress in the 6th District, which Mike Pence held before winning the governorship in 2012. Indiana's 4th will also likely get a new Republican representative. Indiana's 5th is probably the only one that could become extremely competitive, but it would require the retirement of Susan Brooks. However, as the title of this article suggest, there are districts of note here.
Indiana's 2nd District - Jackie Walorski* (R) vs. Mel Hall (D)
Likely Republican
Most of the attention this cycle has gone into districts that are widely seen as competitive. Not much focus ever goes to districts with the Likely rating. After all, most people, including me, use this rating to try and identify possible upsets. Both of the Indiana districts on here qualify for this rating. Trump solidly carried this in 2016, the PVI is R +11, and is not a district you would normally view as competitive. But there was a close race here as recently as 2012, and this is Senator Donnelly's old district. Him being on the ballot could help Democrat Mel Hall upset Jackie Walorski. And that's not everything. The DCCC, the guys responsible for electing Democrats to the House, view this race as winnable. Mel Hall is also a decent candidate himself, being a conservative Blue Dog. He's also raised a substantial sum of money for a race that shouldn't be competitive, though he still trails Walorski by quite a bit. Like most Likely districts, we have no polling here. Hence why we rate this as Likely Republican.
Indiana's 9th District - Trey Hollingsworth* (R) vs. Liz Watson (D)
Likely Republican
This district is a bit redder and is probably the less likely of the two to flip. Trump got an even larger victory here, the PVI is 2 points redder than the 2nd District, and we haven't had a close race here since 2010. (when the lines were different) However, Hollingsworth does have unique disadvantages. For one, he's a freshman incumbent, so he's not as well known as Walorski is in her district. Secondly, he is a carpetbagger from Tennessee and self-funded his race. Democrats tried making this argument in 2016 too, but it was unsuccessful. However, that doesn't mean people don't hold that sentiment. He drastically under-performed Trump in the district and his 2018 primary opponent got 22%, likely fueled by the feeling that he isn't really a Hoosier. Also, his opponent has raised a surprising amount of money. Liz Watson is a progressive Democrat who has out-raised Hollingsworth. Once again, we have no polls here. So, we rate this as Likely Republican.
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