Senate Update: NJ moves to Likely D, WV moves to Lean D
Kavanaugh is beginning to have an effect on Senate races, as new polls released show some Senators in better positions. Let's go through them all.
New Jersey - Bob Menendez* (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R)
Lean Democratic --> Likely Democratic
Hugin made a terrible move when he announced that if he were a US Senator, he would have voted for Kavanaugh, who's confirmation is incredibly unpopular in the state. A new poll shows Menendez with a much more substantial lead as Democrats rally around him. At this point, it appears this race has fallen off the map. This moves to Likely Democratic.
West Virginia - Joe Manchin* (D) vs. Patrick Morrisey (R)
Tilt Democratic --> Lean Democratic
Joe Manchin made the smart political move when he voted for Kavanaugh's confirmation, as Kavanaugh is incredibly popular in his state. While we have no new polling here, it's hard to see how Manchin loses this race. This moves to Lean Democratic.
I'd also like to note that I'm watching for new polls in a number of other Senate contests.
Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota (Where recent polls already show Heitkamp trailing by double digits) could all move even further away from Democrats, while Tennessee (where recent polls have shown Blackburn taking the lead) could move in any direction considering Bredesen's statement that he would have voted for Kavanaugh. The Senate is already tough for the Democrats, but it could slip away completely depending on what comes out in the next few weeks.
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